81. Creating Passionate Users: Reese, Kevin, And The Monty Hall Problem And that s one way of looking at the monty hall problem that s been It wouldbe just like if in the monty hall problem, Monty always looked at the doors http://headrush.typepad.com/creating_passionate_users/2005/04/reese_kevin_and.ht

hostName = '.typepad.com'; Creating Passionate Users About Past favorites You ARE a marketer. Deal with it. The Koolaid Point (physics of passion) Stop your presentation before it kills again! Featuritis vs. the Happy User Peak ... Main Reese, Kevin, and The Monty Hall Problem "There's a car behind one of those three doors... and goats behind the other two. Pick the door you think the car is behind. OK, now before I open the door you chose, I'll open one of the other doors... [door opens revealing a goat] and you can see there's no car behind that one. But I'll give you a chance to switch your door for the remaining closed door. What do you say? Do you want to switch or keep the one you originally chose?" And that's one way of looking at the Monty Hall problem that's been inciting/confusing/intriguiging/pissing people off for years. (You can try it yourself through this applet. In my recent blog on Seduction and Curiosity I made up a kind of variant on the Monty Hall problem, only this time the problem was for Kevin to pick the business card that had Reese's phone number on the back, from a pile of three business cards. After Kevin made his choice, Reese turned over a blank card, and asked if Kevin wanted to stick with the one he had, or switch for her remaining card. He declined, thinking, "Each card started with a 1-in-3 chance, and nothing could change that." But when he didn't switch, she criticized him for not realizing that switching

82. Ed-stat: Re: FAQ & Monty Hall Problem Re FAQ monty hall problem. John P Lawrence (jpl@stat.mps.ohiostate.edu) Fri,29 Sep 1995 084148 -0400. Messages sorted by date thread subject http://www.math.yorku.ca/Who/Faculty/Monette/Ed-stat/0187.html

John P Lawrence ( jpl@stat.mps.ohio-state.edu Fri, 29 Sep 1995 08:41:48 -0400 Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] Next message: Gerbert Haselager: "Re: CHAID" Previous message: SFBAY0001: "Re: Help: Conjoint Software" Try the sci.math FAQ. Look in the table of contents under Mathematical Games. The www address for the table of contents is: http://daisy.uwaterloo.ca/~alopez-o/math-faq/tableofcontents3_1.html John Next message: Gerbert Haselager: "Re: CHAID" Previous message: SFBAY0001: "Re: Help: Conjoint Software"

83. Monty Hall Worksheet will take you through the Web pages looking at the monty hall problem. The first page introduces the Monty Hall puzzle, in which you are asked to http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~steve/Teaching/Monty/

Monty Hall Worksheet This worksheet will take you through the Web pages looking at the Monty Hall problem. To start off, you'll need to print out this page, and then follow the instructions below. Getting Started Begin by setting your Web Browser to point at the following URL: http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~steve/Teaching/Monty/Monty.html Introduction The first page introduces the Monty Hall puzzle, in which you are asked to decide between two different strategies for winning the star prize on a game show. You are asked to guess which strategy (if either) you think is the best. Write your answer below. Write down what you think your chances are of winning the star prize under the two different strategies. Discuss the problem with the class. Do you all agree? Practical 1 Follow the instructions on the screen, to simulate being the contestant on the game show. Try switching and not switching and keep a record of the number of times you win when you switch and when you don't. No of times you win No of times you lose Don't switch Switch Which is Best?

84. John's Jottings: The Monty Hall Problem The monty hall problem. Posted by john on July 14, 2003 0953 PM Thoughts (2).I haven t seen the monty hall problem mentioned for some time until it was http://www.johnsjottings.com/archives/2003/07/14/the_monty_hall_problem.html

John's Jottings Home Archives Colophon Syndication ... Contact The Monty Hall Problem Posted by john on July 14, 2003 09:53 PM Thoughts (2) I haven't seen the Monty Hall Problem mentioned for some time until it was recently brought up in rec.gambling.craps. I was all set to write up a little something on it until a Feedster search quickly discovered that it has been discussed at length recently, with active participation by commenters, by Brad Wilson (The .Net Guy) in The Let's Make a Deal Paradox and I won't go over that ground again, except to point his article out and provide a few more links. The premise behind the Monty Hall problem is this: Given the choice of 3 doors you select one behind which exists a prize. After selecting the door you are shown the contents of another door, which does not contain the prize you seek. The question is should you switch to the last remaining door or keep your initial selection? Intuition would say it is a 50/50 shot so no advantage to switching, but intuition would be wrong. This problem has tricked many a mathematician. Just ask Marilyn vos Savant, who started this whole mess by answering this question correctly (that you should switch) in a Parade Magazine article over a dozen years ago.

85. The Monty Hall Problem . Welcome to the probability problem that hasvexed many a person over many a year. Rumours about this problem have flown......The monty hall problem. http://people.bu.edu/trachten/java_stuff/monty.html

The Monty Hall Problem Description Welcome to the probability problem that has vexed many a person over many a year. Rumours about this problem have flown far and wide, the most egregious being that the wrong answer was once published in a journal. When the woman with the highest known IQ (at the time) wrote in with a correction, her correction was refused because it is quite counter-intuitive. I, myself, have seen professors of mathematics run computer simulations because they did not believe the theoretical result. How to play The question is simple: there are three doors, with the prize of your dreams behind one of them (use your imagination). You select one door, and the host decides he's going to be nice to you; he shows you which of the other doors definitely does not contain the prize. Your task now is to decide: do you stick with your choice, or do you change your mind and opt for the one remaining closed door. This java applet was originally developed for use by the CS 273 class at the University of Illinois. Back to Ari's

86. Monty Hall Problem - Oliver Thylmann's Blog Actually a good page about The Infamous monty hall problem. Listed below arelinks to weblogs that reference monty hall problem http://blog.thylmann.net/2003/09/monty_hall_prob.html

hostName = '.thylmann.net'; Oliver Thylmann's Blog Site Menu Homepage Personal Blog OUBS Blog Moblog ... Contact Me Blog Links BlogPulse Profile FeedBurner Feed Technorati Profile Latest Books Ricardo Semler: The Seven-Day Weekend: Changing the Way Work Works Amazing book with great stories, insights and a good way to challenge your thinking. review Patrick M. Lencioni: The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable Good read, insightful. review Tim Renner: Death Is Not So Bad : The Future of the Music Industry Great book for all those in love with music and business. review Tom Peters: Re-imagine! A true WOW Project! Great book. (*****) Thomas W. Malone: The Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style and Your Life Amazing book. If you are into all things business, then this view of the future should be of great interest. More in my full review Neal Stephenson: Quicksilver : Volume One of The Baroque Cycle (Stephenson, Neal. Baroque Cycle, V. 1.) A good start for a very long book. Check my review for a longer rant. (***)

87. Monty Hall Problem Here are a few links to the monty hall problem From the University of Californiaat San Diego Math Department From the Interactive Mathematics Miscellany http://faculty.fortlewis.edu/SMITH_P/monty.hall.links.htm

Here are a few links to the Monty Hall Problem: From the University of California at San Diego Math Department From the Interactive Mathematics Miscellany and Puzzles Web Site From the Grand Illusions Web Site

88. Alex Kasman's Monty Hall Page The monty hall problem. On the old American game show Let s Make a Deal, therewas always a segment in which the contestant had to pick one of three doors, http://math.cofc.edu/faculty/kasman/MATHFICT/montyhall.html

On the old American game show Let's Make a Deal , there was always a segment in which the contestant had to pick one of three doors, looking for the car which was behind one of them and hoping not to get one of the goats that were behind the other two. The rules were as follows: The contestant picks a door, but before the door is opened, the host opens one of the doors that was not selected and reveals a goat. Now there are still two doors left, the one originally selected and another. The contestant again has the choice of which of the two doors to pick! The interesting thing about this situation is that most people think that it does not matter whether you switch doors or keep the same door at this point. (This is why this was mentioned on a recent episode of the TV show .) "What difference does it make?" they might say. "After all, there's a 50% chance of the car being behind either of the two doors...right?" WRONG! It doesn't take too much mathematics to see that you are twice as likely to win if you switch doors at that point. I will try to convince you of this fact in two ways: Click here to play the game yourself.

89. Bricoleur: Webified Monty Hall Problem home Webified monty hall problem. January 30, 2003 Webified monty hall problem.A webified version of the monty hall problem via anil dash s daily http://www.bricoleur.org/archives/000136.html

bricoleur home about law code ... Webified Monty Hall Problem January 30, 2003: Webified Monty Hall Problem A webified version of the monty hall problem [via anil dash's daily links Posted by macgill home about law code ... archives

90. Harvard University Press/Features/Randomness/Monty Hall The monty hall problem. Suppose you re on a game show, and you re given the choice The problem is named after the host of Let s Make a Deal, Monty Hall. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/features/benran/montyhall.html

The Monty Hall Problem Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Do you keep door No. 1 or do you make the switch to door No. 2? pages 180-181, Randomness 1. This now infamous problem was originally appeared in the September 1990 Parade column, "Ask Marilyn," where Marilyn vos Savant was asked the question by a reader. The problem is named after the host of Let's Make a Deal, Monty Hall. Return to BRAINTEASERS

91. G2007: Monty Hall Problem Revisited My problem was my Monty Hall program results were a bit err.. wrong. So I submittedthe monty hall problem and a very nice man called Thomas David Baker http://g2007.com/blog/gary/archives/2005/03/monty_hall_prob.html

March 22, 2005 Monty Hall Problem Revisited Ok, so I found this site called lazyweb.org that invites other users to solve my problems (not in the 'how do i land a girlfriend? / why can't i stop eating toblerone?' sense, but realistic ones that have an answer). My problem was my Monty Hall program results were a bit err.. wrong. So I submitted the Monty Hall Problem and a very nice man called Thomas David Baker from London sent me the code for his Monty Hall program that actually produces the results I was looking for. So the book is right and Andy isn't and I need to become a better programmer. Here is Thomas' C# code - using System; using System.Collections; namespace /// Showing the stats for the Monty Hall problem. class /// The main entry point for the application. [STAThread] static void Main( string int new int correctWhenStick = 0; int correctWhenChange = 0; for int int rightAnswer = r.Next(3); int initialGuess = r.Next(3); if // your initial guess is wrong // the other booby prize door is open // so to change is to get the prize. else if // you got the prize right first time.

92. Chrysalis Books - The Monty Hall Problem And Other Puzzles Puzzlers will feel fit to be tied—Dog Tied If Fido is tied to a 10foot-longrope, and hi. http://www.chrysalisbooks.co.uk/book/186105596X

Menu Home About Chrysalis Books Group Newsletter Our imprints ... Press Office Search by Book title Author ISBN number Current category only Sports You are in: The Monty Hall Problem and Other Puzzles By Ivan Moscovich Normal price: Summary Puzzlers will feel fit to be tied—Dog Tied: If Fido is tied to a 10-foot-long rope, and his bone is 15 feet away, how is it possible that he can reach and enjoy his bone without breaking or stretching the rope? (And yes—the rope IS tied to something.) There’s fun in finding the answer to this and other cool number-based problems. Dust off your mathematics and get solving. The intriguing enigmas include questions on interstellar communications, ancient geometry (Pythagoras and Plato), and even traffic patterns in “gridlock city.” Or play the grasshopper jumping game. It’s all fascinating. About the Author Ivan Moscovich lives in Amsterdam where he owns and runs a workshop creating puzzles and toys. He is the author of The Awesome 3-D Puzzle Challenge (Sterling, 1402707096). Publisher Robson Publication Date 11 February 2005 ISBN Size (h x w) Binding Paperback Pages Related Books CHALLENGING IQ TESTS by The Diagram Group MESMERIZING MIND-BENDING PUZZLES by Terry Stickels HUMOROUS CROSSWORDS by Cathy Allis Millhauser WORD SEARCH PUZZLES TO KEEP YOU SHARP by Mark Danna Privacy statement Contact us Home

93. Math Alive 199 Lab 3 monty hall problem (page 1 of 2). Trying to find the best strategy to winin this game is a famous brain teaser, not least because so many people http://www.princeton.edu/~matalive/VirtualClassroom/v0.1/html/lab3/lab3_1.html

Math Alive Table Of Contents Lab 3: Probability and Statistics Monty Hall Problem Disease Testing Experiment Statistical Calculations Confidence Interval ... Histogram Lab 3: Monty Hall Problem (page 1 of 2) Trying to find the best strategy to win in this game is a famous brain teaser, not least because so many people (including mathematicians) get it wrong. The game is very simple: you are shown three closed doors. Behind one of them is a car, behind the two others, a cow. You first pick one door, but it does not open right away. The game host, Monty Hall, who knows behind which door the car is waiting, then teases you by opening one of the two doors that you had not picked to show you the cow sitting there. Then he may offer you a choice: staying with your original pick, or switching to the third remaining door. Should you switch or shouldn't you? Well, it really all depends! Below, you'll play this game in three different versions, with three different hosts. Host 1 always offers you the possibility to switch after he has opened one of the doors you didn't pick which has a cow. Host 2 offers that choice only some of the time; his decision to do so depends on the door you picked on the first go. You'll have to find out what his rule for deciding is.

94. Monty Hall Problem Simulation This is the monty hall problem. The answer is that the player should switch.The probability of staying and winning is 1/3, and the probability of switching http://www.u.arizona.edu/~vmiller/applets/montyhall/MontyHallProblem.php

Monty Hall Problem At the end of each episode of Let's Make a Deal , the host, Monty Hall, would give the player with the most winnings a chance to bet it all on a prize between one of three doors. The player guessed the door he or she thought the prize was behind. Then Monty would open one of the other doors behind which contained a goat or demolished car or something, showing that the prize is not behind that door. Then he gave the player a chance to switch his or her guess or stay with the original door. The question is "Is is advantageous to switch, or does it not matter?" This is the Monty Hall Problem. The answer is that the player should switch. The probability of staying and winning is 1/3, and the probability of switching and winning is 2/3. Try this applet that simulates the game to see for yourself. Still not convinced? You may have gone on a winning/losing streak with the applet or you didn't play enough times to see that the probabilities converge to 2/3 for switching and 1/3 for staying. Below is a simulation in which one player always switches and one always stays. They each play 3 games per second so you'll be able to see the probabilities settle around their correct values. Always Switches Always Stays Win Ratio Win Ratio Home Programs

95. The Monty Hall Problem Re The monty hall problem Osiris 151834 01/23/01 (0) responses. The other one! Re The monty hall problem cfm 180116 09/28/00 (0) responses http://users.cgiforme.com/fbendz/messages/163.html

Help keep this site alive. Please visit our sponsors. Sex. Relationships. Friendships. Things that matter to us. Get A Word of Advice at INPursuit. The Monty Hall problem Post a new reply Back to the message board This message was posted by Jarno , posted on September 28, 2000 at 09:46:36 coming from Mood of this message: If you haven't encountered this before, you are in for a major brain twister... or a major headache... Here's the problem: "You are a game show contestant who must choose to open one of three doorsA, B or C. Behind two lies a banana, behind the third, $10,000. You win what is behind your chosen door. You pick a door, A, but before you open it, Monty (the host, who knows what is behind each door) opens one of the two remaining doors (C) to reveal a banana. He offers you the chance to change your choice from A to B, providing you pay him $10. Which door do you choose and why?" -Jarno Responses to this messages: Re: The Monty Hall problem Osiris 0) responses The other one! Fredrik Bendz 2) responses Re: The other one!

96. Re: The Monty Hall Problem This message is a reply to Re The monty hall problem posted from Simon Goldringposted at September 28, 2000 at 162519 http://users.cgiforme.com/fbendz/messages/175.html

Help keep this site alive. Please visit our sponsors. Sex. Relationships. Friendships. Things that matter to us. Get A Word of Advice at INPursuit. Re: The Monty Hall problem Post a new reply Back to the message board This message was posted by Jarno , posted on September 28, 2000 at 18:49:41 coming from This message is a reply to Re: The Monty Hall problem posted from Simon Goldring posted at September 28, 2000 at 16:25:19 ****** I am re-posting the post that I started a new thread for now that the "problem" is solved - please reply hear, and not in the new thread ****** You said: " My answer would of course be that I would stay with my original answer, A, because there would be nothing to be gained (and $10 to potentially lose) by switching my answer to B." Here's my reply: Heh! This is what everybody says (including me) at first, but the correct answer is that you substantially increase your chances at getting the price if you pay to swithch.... I know, this is extremely counter-intuitive, which is why even professional mathematicians have fallen for this one. (So don't worry, you're in good crowd) When I encountered this first I came to the same conlusion that you did (I thought it was obvious), and obstinately argued, using all sorts of seemingly good arguments why switching could not possibly increase your chances at winning.

97. Let S Make A Deal This problem was given the name The monty hall Paradox in honor of the long How does this problem change if monty hall does not know where the car is http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/montybg.html

In order to explain why the numbers are suggesting that it is better to switch, it's necessary to describe how the game is played. If you have never seen Monty Hall's Let's Make A Deal game show, then let me catch you up to speed. Let's Make A Deal Monty Hall I can only assume Monty Hall's game show Let's Make A Deal took place sometime during the seventies. Information on this particular game show has somehow eluded the internet and my less than vivid memory sometimes fails me, but the basic setup for the game is as follows. Pretty much the entire audience dresses up like a complete loon (Raggedy Ann and Andy were fairly popular costumes) hoping that Monty Hall would select them out of the crowd and offer them a chance to win a fabulous prize. For instance, he might offer you $100 for every paper clip that you have in your posession or he might give you $500, but then ask you if you would like to keep the money or trade it for what's in a particular box. Of course there could be $1000 in the box or a single can of dog food. Anyway, I'm digressing and hopefully you get the basic gist of the game. The particular game that we are concerned with here is where Monty Hall offers you the opportunity to win what is behind one of three doors. Typically there was a really nice prize (ie. a car) behind one of the doors and a not-so-nice prize (ie. a goat) behind the other two. After selecting a door, Monty would then proceed to open one of the doors you didn't select. It is important to note here that Monty would NOT open the door that concealed the car. At this point, he would then ask you if you wanted to switch to the other door before revealing what you had won.

98. Education, Mathematics, Fun, Monty Hall Dilemma Simulation for the monty hall Dilemma. On Internet. The WWW Tackles The montyhall problem Win a car. Copyright © 19962005 Alexander Bogomolny http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml

Username: Password: Monty Hall Dilemma The Monty Hall Dilemma was discussed in the popular "Ask Marylin" question-and-answer column of the Parade magazine. Details can also be found in the "Power of Logical Thinking" by Marylin vos Savant, St. Martin's Press, 1996. Marylin received the following question: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door number 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors? Craig. F. Whitaker Columbia, MD Marylin's response caused an avalanche of correspondence, mostly from people who would not accept her solution. Several iterations of correspondence ensued. Eventually, she issued a call to Math teachers among her readers to organize experiments and send her the charts. Some readers with access to computers ran computer simulations. At long last, the truth was established and accepted. Below is one simulation you may try on your computer. For simplicity, I do not hide goats behind the doors. There is only one 'abstract' prize. You may either hit on the right door or miss it. You make your selection by pressing small round buttons below input controls that substitute for the doors. Down below other controls update experiment statistics even as you progress.

99. Monty Hall - Explanations Of Solution Gives 4 explanations of the solution to this problem. http://exploringdata.cqu.edu.au/montyexp.htm

From the Exploring Data website - http://curriculum.qed.qld.gov.au/kla/eda/ © Education Queensland, 1997 Monty Hall Puzzle - Explanations of the Solution One interesting aspect of this puzzle is that no one explanation seems to satisfy everybody. If you want to convince an entire class of skeptical students, you will need all of the solutions below, at least. Explanation 1 - my favourite The probability that the contestant chose the correct door initially is 1/3, since there are three doors each of which has an equal chance of concealing the prize. The probability that the door Monty Hall chooses conceals the prize is 0, since he never chooses the door that contains the prize. Since the sum of the three probabilities is 1, the probability that the prize is behind the other door is 1 - (1/3 + 0), which equals 2/3. Therefore the contestant will double the chance of winning by switching. Explanation 2 - looking at an extreme case Most people who get this puzzle wrong reason that after Monty reveals a losing door there are two doors left, one of which contains the prize, and therefore the probability of each concealing the prize is 1/2. This explanation dispels that line of reasoning. Imagine that there were a million doors. Monty knows which door conceals the prize, so he then opens 999 998 losing doors. You are now confronted with two doors, the one you chose initially and the one Monty has left. Do

100. Monty Hall There are lots of other Websites on this problem, but I like the Car Talk notes that it is very important to the analysis that monty hall knows which http://cuwu.editthispage.com/stories/storyReader$144

Home FAQ Feedback Statistical Links ... Courses using Weblogs Members Join Now Login Monty Hall Posted by John Marden , 2/28/00 at 1:46:25 PM. Monty Hall It's that time in the semester when I have to teach probability. I like to start by driving people crazy with the Let's Make a Deal problem. Here's the setup: There are three boxes, one which contains a New Car!!!! You pick one. Monty knows which one contains the car. He opens (one of the) empty ones. You get a choice of Keeping your original box. Trading for the one left unopened. Which gives you a better chance of winning, keeping or trading? Or do they have the same chance, being as how there are only two boxes left? Some arguments . (The answer Try it out: Chance News' take on it. There are lots of other Websites on this problem, but I like the Car Talk guys' best (especially when you don't actually have to listen to them): About Statistics The Ants are My Friend Trade . Try this to maybe convince yourself. In the applet, first decide what your strategy is, then pick a box. Then press the "Cheat" button. Now you can see whether you win or lose without playing out the game. If your strategy is to keep, under what circumstances do you win? If your strategy is to trade, under what circumstances do you win? That is, if you

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