THE ARCHIVE complete list Articles from the New Yorker Game Theory download pdf home blink the tipping point ... blog May 29, 2006 Books When it comes to athletic prowess, don't believe your eyes. The first player picked in the 1996 National Basketball Association draft was a slender, six-foot guard from Georgetown University named Allen Iverson. Iverson was thrilling. He was lightning quick, and could stop and start on a dime. He would charge toward the basket, twist and turn and writhe through the arms and legs of much taller and heavier men, and somehow find a way to score. In his first season with the Philadelphia 76ers, Iverson was voted the N.B.A.'s Rookie of the Year. In every year since 2000, he has been named to the N.B.A.'s All-Star team. In the 2000-01 season, he finished first in the league in scoring and steals, led his team to the second-best record in the league, and was named, by the country's sportswriters and broadcasters, basketball's Most Valuable Player. He is currently in the midst of a four-year, seventy-seven-million-dollar contract. Almost everyone who knows basketball and who watches Iverson play thinks that he's one of the best players in the game. But how do we know Basketball experts clearly appreciate basketball. They understand the gestalt of the game, in the way that someone who has spent a lifetime thinking about and watching, say, modern dance develops an understanding of that art form. They're able to teach and coach and motivate; to make judgments and predictions about a player's character and resolve and stage of development. But the argument of "The Wages of Wins" is that this kind of expertise has real limitations when it comes to making precise evaluations of individual performance, whether you're interested in the consistency of football quarterbacks or in testing claims that N.B.A. stars "turn it on" during playoffs. The baseball legend Ty Cobb, the authors point out, had a lifetime batting average of .366, almost thirty points higher than the former San Diego Padres outfielder Tony Gwynn, who had a lifetime batting average of .338: | |
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