BaseballStuff.com Baseball Scholars Forum Dan Levitt's Baseball Page The Batter/Pitcher Match Up by Dan Levitt Webmaster's Note: The following article in the By the Numbers newsletter of Statistical Analysis Committee of SABR and appears here courtesy of the author. ] One of the key questions facing baseball modelers revolves around determining of the outcome of the batter/pitcher match-up. When a .310 hitter faces a pitcher with a batting average against (OAV) of .290 what should the resulting batting average be? At first glance it may appear that the result should be the average of the two, i.e. .300. Upon reflection, however, this solution is flawed. Assuming a .260 league average, the .290 pitcher is worse than average. Therefore, the batter should hit for a higher average against this pitcher than his overall average. Bill James in his 1983 Baseball Abstract introduces the log5 method for addressing this calculation. He credits the formula below for evaluating the batter/pitcher match-up to Dallas Adams. Where PitAvg equals batting average against the pitcher. | |
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